The Benfield Group’s October 2008 research report entitled “Global Reinsurance: Capital Consequences – Billion Dollar Question” analyzes the impact of the 2008 hurricane season, the credit crisis, and the financial concerns over XL Capital and AIG on the global reinsurance market. The report states that reinsurers were well prepared for the hurricane season, and, while Hurricane Ike will likely end up as being one of the five most costly insured catastrophe losses, Ike will not be a market changing event by itself. The report then predicts that the 2008 investment returns for most reinsurers will be negative due to the effects of the credit crisis despite the majority of assets being invested in high-quality, fixed-income securities. Finally, the report lists concerns with XL Capital’s recent issues with capital adequacy and investment losses and with AIG’s issues, which include the possibilities of S&P downgrading Transatlantic Holdings (of which AIG owns 59%) and business formerly ceded to AIG being placed in the open market. The predicted result of the combination of these factors is that prices in the global reinsurance market will increase in 2009.
This post written by Dan Crisp.